Convergent Competition and Incremental Progress: A Framework for African Growth

In this article, I explore the power of convergent competition, a dynamic where independent national efforts unintentionally drive collective progress. From the race to the Moon to Africa’s own innovations in mobile money, telecoms, education, and space science, I argue that parallel ambition is transformative.

Rooted in African values of legacy and stewardship, this piece also reflects on why culture must shape our economics if we want growth that truly endures.

In the pursuit of sustainable development across Africa, there is a growing emphasis on collaboration, regional integration, and pan-African policy alignment. While these remain important, there is another dynamic, less discussed but no less powerful, that deserves attention: convergent competition. This concept describes a process in which multiple actors, each pursuing their own development goals independently, end up advancing collective progress. Without central coordination or formal agreements, they contribute to shared growth by setting benchmarks, inspiring imitation, and unintentionally laying the groundwork for systemic transformation. In other words, convergent competition is what happens when individuals, firms, or governments, while pursuing their own goals, unintentionally contribute to a shared outcome. Unlike “coopetition”, where competitors consciously collaborate, convergent competition is more subtle. It’s about parallel effort—not mutual strategy. Yet these independent paths often converge toward systemic transformation.

The story of human flight and space exploration provides a compelling historical parallel. In 1903, the Wright brothers achieved the first powered, sustained, and controlled airplane flight at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina. Their aircraft, the Flyer I, was made of spruce wood and muslin fabric, powered by a 12-horsepower engine. It stayed aloft for only 12 seconds, traveling 120 feet—but it proved that powered flight was possible. From there, a series of steady, often disconnected innovations began to unfold. Engineers across Europe and the United States began experimenting with airframes, propellers, and control surfaces.The First World War brought urgency to these efforts, transforming aircraft into tools of reconnaissance and combat. Innovation was relentless: stronger materials, more powerful engines, better aerodynamics. By the 1930s, commercial aviation had taken root. By the 1940s, jet engines had revolutionised speed and range. Meanwhile, rocket technology, beginning with early work by pioneers like Robert Goddard and culminating in the German V-2 rocket, opened the door to space travel. The Cold War intensified the race. The Soviet Union launched Sputnik in 1957, then sent Yuri Gagarin into orbit in 1961. In response, the United States pushed forward with the Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo programs. Each mission achieved a new milestone: spacewalks, orbital docking, and long-duration flights. Finally, in 1969, just 66 years after Kitty Hawk, Neil Armstrong stepped onto the Moon. What began as a fragile wooden flyer evolved into a multi-stage rocket capable of crossing 384,000 kilometres of space.

What made this astonishing arc of progress possible? Incremental development. Each generation built on the last, learning from failure, innovating in small ways, and driving change forward not as isolated geniuses, but as participants in a global, loosely coordinated ecosystem of innovation. Competition drove excellence, but so did the inevitability of knowledge diffusion. No single actor could skip the steps. Progress demanded patience, iteration, and systems thinking.

There are several lessons here. First, incrementalism works—especially when it is not discouraged by impatience. Grand visions must be grounded in small, consistent steps. Second, independent efforts often converge. Even when actors compete, they participate in a kind of unintentional collaboration. Their outputs form the inputs of others. Third, shared ambition doesn’t require shared strategy. A common goal—like reaching space, or reducing poverty—can be pursued by many without formal coordination, yet still produce convergent benefits. Finally, systems evolve most powerfully when both excellence and visibility are encouraged. The more we share what works, the faster others can follow, adapt, and improve.

This brings us back to the African continent.

In my own research, I’ve been examining how Space Science and Technology (SST) investments, such as astronomy programs, satellite infrastructure, and space education, are impacting African economies. Countries like South Africa, Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, and Kenya are making independent investments in these domains, often without regional policy synchronisation. Yet, the benefits of these programs increasingly spill over borders. Skilled workers migrate. Knowledge circulates. Best practices are imitated, and public interest is stimulated continent-wide.

This is convergent competition in practice. One nation’s success raises the bar for its neighbours, spurring them to act, to adapt, or to innovate in return. Even if unintentional, the outcome is systemic. Importantly, these investments also feed directly into economic performance. In my thesis, I argue that labour productivity, how efficiently human capital is transformed into output, can be used as a proxy for socio-economic benefit (SEB) from SST initiatives. This metric captures not only direct technological outcomes but also improvements in education, skills, digital access, and innovation capacity.

A number of African development stories illustrate the power of convergent competition, where strong national ambition, even when competitive, ends up catalysing wider systemic progress. One of the clearest examples comes from the telecommunications revolution. In the early 2000s, countries like South Africa and Nigeria aggressively expanded their mobile networks. South Africa’s MTN and Nigeria’s Glo and Airtel competed not just domestically but across borders. This race to dominate mobile markets drove significant investments in infrastructure, dropped the cost of access, and spurred innovations in service delivery. Without any central coordination, the entire continent benefited. By 2024, mobile penetration in Africa exceeded 80%, forming the foundation for digital finance, e-learning, and online entrepreneurship.

Another striking case is Kenya’s launch of M-Pesa in 2007. Originally designed to facilitate rural remittances, it quickly transformed into a national mobile banking platform. Its success triggered a wave of responses across Uganda, Tanzania, Ghana, Nigeria, and beyond, as mobile operators and fintech firms scrambled to replicate or outdo the model. While each country adapted its approach independently, the result was a region-wide shift in how financial services were accessed, regulated, and delivered. Today, mobile money is an integral part of Africa’s financial ecosystem, a convergence born not from collaboration, but from competition and emulation.

In the field of higher education and innovation ecosystems, countries like South Africa, Rwanda, Nigeria, and Ghana are investing heavily to become regional leaders in research and training. South Africa’s Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) and South African Radio Astronomy Observatory (SARAO), Rwanda’s African Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Ghana’s GSSTI and AI research initiatives, and Nigeria’s innovation clusters are all part of an uncoordinated yet mutually reinforcing rise. As one country improves academic infrastructure or attracts international partners, others respond by upgrading their own offerings. This quiet race is enabling cross-border collaboration, student mobility, and a rising African academic standard, another example of convergent competition through institutional excellence.

Countries such as South Africa, Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Ghana have each launched space science and technology initiatives, from satellite development and data systems to ground stations and public outreach. While these programs are nationally owned and differently resourced, their cumulative effect has been regional. They have inspired pan-African STEM participation, fostered shared expertise, and helped position the continent as a credible contributor to global space science. Again, convergence occurred not through formal policy alignment, but through parallel ambition and public visibility.

Together, these stories affirm that Africa’s most profound development gains may come not from uniformity, but from diverse, decentralised excellence. Where one nation leads, others follow, not to imitate, but to compete with pride. In doing so, they forge a collective path forward, grounded in the continent’s own rhythm of innovation and resilience.

For policymakers, this insight is critical. Africa cannot afford to wait for perfect regional alignment. It should not be assumed that a unified master plan is always necessary to produce shared gains. Sometimes, the most effective path forward is to encourage strategic excellence at the local level, knowing it will inspire and accelerate others. Governments should therefore; invest in making success visible. When good ideas are noticed, they are replicated, support platforms for diffusion, such as open-source technologies, regional think tanks, or innovation hubs, allow flexibility in regulation, so each actor can experiment and learn without undue constraint.

Africa does not need to replicate the industrial blueprint of the West. It can carve its own development path—organic, decentralised, and deeply rooted in the spirit of innovation. Convergent competition offers a complementary, bottom-up engine of progress.

In a world that often rewards those who move fast and adapt boldly, convergent competition reminds us that systemic change can arise not just from working together, but from working side-by-side. As with the journey from the Wright brothers to the Apollo program, the future belongs to those who take incremental steps with visionary intent. Each only needs to add to the efforts of those who came before so that those who come after may soar.

This insight is not only strategic, it is deeply cultural. In many African traditions, each generation sees itself as a steward of progress, building upon the legacy of those who came before while creating space for those who will come after.  This is the essence of Ubuntu, the interconnectedness of people across time and space.

Therefore, economic models that ignore culture miss a vital ingredient. For Africa's development to be truly sustainable and impactful, it must integrate cultural wisdom into economic reasoning. Economics without cultural context risks being inefficient and irrelevant; but integrated, it becomes transformative.

Africa’s space to grow is now, and perhaps through convergent competition, its journey to the stars has already begun.